2026 Cashmere Wholesale Price Index: A 3-Year Trend Report from an Ordos Factory

Every quarter, a B2B buyer asks us the same three questions: “what is the cashmere market doing, what should I budget for the next order, and is what I am being quoted a fair price?” This page is a longer answer than the email version. It is built from our own transaction data across 2024, 2025, and Q1–Q3 2026, cross-referenced with what we are hearing from raw fiber brokers in Alxa, Xilingol, and the Bayanhot combing market. The data is factory-side (we are a yarn and garment producer, not a trader), so the spread between raw fiber and finished goods is from a real production ledger, not a model.

If you only want the headline numbers, the summary table is in section 4. The rest is for buyers who want to understand what is moving and what is not.

1. The 36-month view in one paragraph

Between January 2024 and September 2026, raw cashmere fiber wholesale prices in Inner Mongolia fell roughly 32% from the late-2023 peak, then stabilized in mid-2025 at approximately CNY 580–640/kg for Grade A 14.5–15.5µm dehaired fiber (FOB Ordos, combed, washed, sorted). This is roughly 70% of the 2022–2023 peak. The 2023 peak itself was driven by post-Covid herd restocking and a temporary export surge; the 2024–2025 correction is the return to fundamentals. Yarn and finished-goods prices followed raw fiber with a 3–4 month lag, and finished knitwear prices have been more stable than yarn because finished-goods inventory was lower.

Through 2026, our base case is another 5–8% downside in raw fiber through Q2 2026, then flat to +2% for the balance of 2026 as herd sizes stabilize. Translation: if you are buying cashmere in late 2026 or early 2027, you are buying in a buyer’s market, but the easy 30% savings have already happened. Pricing in 2027 will be more about supplier selection than negotiation.

2. Raw fiber — what actually moves the price

The three things that move raw cashmere fiber price in Inner Mongolia, in order of impact over 2024–2026:

1. Herd size in Alxa, Xilingol, and Ordos leagues. The Alashan white cashmere goat population in the three main producing leagues was approximately 14 million head in 2022 and 13.4 million in 2025 per Alxa League statistics. The 2023–2024 decline reflected drought-related culling and reduced per-animal yield. Smaller herd = lower per-animal yield = higher per-kg fiber price during the 2022–2023 spike, and the reverse during 2024–2025 as the herd partially rebuilt.

2. Downstream demand from Italian and Japanese spinners. Biella (Italy) and the Aomori-ken (Japan) cashmere spinners are the price-setters for combed cashmere globally. When their order books are full (typically 6–9 months ahead), they absorb the Alxa-League top grades first, and the price premium for Grade A widens. When their order books soften, the spread between Grade A and Grade B narrows, and the overall index falls. This is what drove the late-2024 price softening.

3. Export logistics from Tianjin port. Cashmere fiber and yarn move through Tianjin and Shanghai. When ocean freight spikes (as in 2021–2022) and when customs hold times for textile exports increase (as in 2025 for some tariff lines), the FOB-CIF spread widens. This affects the buyer’s landed cost more than the buyer’s unit cost.

The 32% drop from late 2023 to mid 2025 was driven roughly equally by herd rebuilding and softer Biella order books. The plateau since mid 2025 is the natural floor — below this, marginal herds exit the business and the long-term supply base contracts. We do not expect significant further downside on raw fiber.

3. The raw-fiber-to-yarn-to-garment spread

This is the part that most “cashmere market report” content gets wrong. The spread between raw fiber and finished knitwear is not fixed — it depends on (a) machine type, (b) yarn count, (c) gauge, and (d) decoration. Here is a working breakdown based on our own 2026 transaction data for 100% cashmere products, FOB Tianjin:

Product type	Raw fiber cost/kg finished	Processing + margin	Wholesale FOB Tianjin
2/26 Nm worsted yarn, undyed	~$80	+$45–60	$130–145/kg
2/26 Nm worsted yarn, dye-lot, coned	~$80	+$80–110	$165–195/kg
2/48 Nm worsted yarn, dye-lot	~$95	+$95–125	$190–220/kg
12gg women’s cashmere sweater, undyed body	~$22	+$15–22	$37–44/pc
12gg women’s cashmere sweater, full fashion knit, dyed, link	~$28	+$22–32	$50–60/pc
14gg men’s cashmere cardigan, link, intarsia	~$30	+$28–40	$58–70/pc
Cashmere baby blanket 80×80 cm, woven, 2-ply	~$28	+$25–35	$53–63/pc

The right-most column is what you would see on a wholesale invoice in Q3 2026. None of these are 2023 prices; all reflect the 2024–2025 correction plus a small Q3 2026 uptick on worsted counts (driven by Biella order book re-tightening).

The takeaway for buyers: the spread is widest on worsted dyed yarn and narrowest on commodity knitwear. If you have flexibility on yarn construction, you have more pricing power. If you are locked into 2/48 Nm worsted in 8 specific Pantone colors, you are paying for that flexibility loss.

4. The price index table — 36 months, by category

Indexed to January 2024 = 100. Source: our own transaction data, monthly average for volumes of 50kg+.

Month	Raw fiber (Grade A, 14.5–15.5µm)	2/26 worsted yarn	2/48 worsted yarn	12gg women’s sweater (undyed)	Cashmere throw blanket 130×180
Jan 2024	100	100	100	100	100
Jul 2024	92	96	98	98	99
Jan 2025	84	90	94	95	97
Jul 2025	76	84	90	92	95
Jan 2026	73	82	89	92	95
Jul 2026	74	84	92	94	97
Sep 2026	74	85	93	95	98

Three things to read from the table:

Raw fiber fell the most (-26%) because it carries the most volatility. The 2023 peak was an aberration.
Yarn fell less (-7% to -15%) because the spread between fiber and yarn widened as the chain absorbed the fiber decline slowly. This is the standard “yarn trade is sticky” pattern.
Finished goods barely moved (-2% to -8%) because the wholesale market is set by larger buyers with multi-season contracts that lock prices.

If you are a small-to-mid buyer without a multi-season contract, you are paying closer to the right column. If you are a 5,000-piece-and-up brand, your actual price in 2026 is closer to the -8% line than the -2% line.

5. What 2027 looks like (our base case, October 2026)

Three scenarios, with the assumptions that move them:

Base case (60% probability): Raw fiber stable through Q1 2027, then +3–6% in H2 2027 as Biella order book re-tightens and a smaller-than-expected 2026 spring combing yield (the goats had a dry spring in Alxa). Yarn +2–4%, finished knitwear +1–3%. This is the boring outcome, and boring is the most likely.

Upside case (25%): +8–12% across the board by Q3 2027 if 2026 winter is severe in Inner Mongolia (heavy snow and cold = more down on the goats in March-April kidding = smaller 2027 spring yield) and if EU luxury demand continues to grow at the 2025 pace. This is the worry scenario for buyers.

Downside case (15%): -5 to -8% across the board if a major European luxury house continues to de-stock through 2027 and pulls down demand for top-grade fiber. Italian spinning is concentrated, and a single major customer pulling orders moves the index.

For the next 12 months, we recommend that buyers:

Lock pricing on Q1–Q2 2027 worsted yarn orders before mid-November 2026, when the index historically firms
Hold cashmere blanket orders into Q1 2027 — the throws index has the most upside in a cold-winter scenario
Do not over-commit on 2/60 Nm or finer counts unless your design demands it — supply is structurally tight through 2027

6. How to read a cashmere supplier’s quote in 2026

Three things that indicate the quote is suspect (regardless of whether it is too high or too low):

If the quote is more than 25% below the table values in section 4, the supplier is either (a) using Grade B or ungraded fiber marketed as Grade A, (b) blending with a non-disclosed fiber (often 20–30% wool or recycled cashmere), or (c) cutting a process step (typically the combing pass, which is the most expensive step in the fiber preparation). The first two are quality issues; the third is durability.

If the quote is uniform across all gauges and yarn counts, the supplier is not actually costing the order. Real cost differs by gauge, by yarn count, by stitch density, and by finishing. A 14gg men’s cardigan in 2/48 Nm and a 7gg chunky blanket use different raw fiber volumes per piece and require different machine setups. A uniform quote across categories is a sign of a broker, not a producer.

If the quote does not break out the fiber, processing, and margin components, the buyer is being asked to negotiate blind. Our standard wholesale quote breaks these out — fiber cost, processing cost, overhead, margin — and so should yours. If a supplier refuses to break out the components, walk away.

7. What we are seeing in our own order book

Through Q3 2026, our order book is roughly:

Stable to slightly up in 100% cashmere knitwear (sweaters, scarves), driven by mid-size European brands restocking after the 2024 destocking
Up materially in cashmere throws and blankets, driven by a category that was previously a 3% of cashmere demand and is now closer to 7–8% (we attribute this to the home-textile boom and to the post-pandemic shift to home as a luxury category)
Up materially in cashmere yarn (worsted counts), driven by smaller Western European brands that moved to direct-from-mill sourcing during 2024 and are now scaling
Down in 100% cashmere suiting fabric, which has been quietly declining for 5 years as the worsted suiting category shifts to wool-cashmere blends

These are not universal industry trends — they are what we see from our specific customer mix. But the directional pattern is consistent with what other Ordos producers are reporting in informal conversations. Treat as a data point, not a forecast.

8. How to budget for the next 12 months

A simple framework:

For spot purchases (under 100kg yarn or under 1,000 pieces knitwear): assume 2024 Q4 pricing plus or minus 5%. Volatile, but the index rarely moves more than 5% in a quarter.
For framework orders (committed quarterly): negotiate 2-quarter forward pricing, with a quarterly reset clause. We offer this to all clients above $50K quarterly volume.
For annual contracts: lock at the start of each quarter for that quarter. Three-month pricing protection. This is the standard for our 30+ framework clients.
For speculative inventory (building stock for a holiday season): build in a 5–8% margin buffer. The 2026 holiday season is a buyer’s market — do not over-pay for it.

If you are a brand considering a 6–12 month strategic order with us, this is the right time. The easy pricing has happened; the structural quality of the Ordos cashmere chain has not changed. The next 12 months are the best window to lock quality at fair pricing that we expect through 2027.

For raw fiber or yarn export pricing: contact our sales team with volume, count, and target micron. For finished knitwear or blankets: same channel. We answer pricing inquiries within 24 hours, with a formal quote within 3 business days.